17 July 2021
During Point Conference-Iraq 3.0 Works, which was held on The Station Hall building on Saturday, 17th July, 2021, Mr. Duraid Tawfeeq- a researcher in the Academic Center for Smart Administration- made a presentation on a study prepared by the Center on the influence of the popular boycott on the results of the parliamentary elections in 2018, expectations about the rates of participation and the results of the elections intended to be held in October.
He started his presentation: "the electoral constituencies in Iraqi Parliamentary Elections Law No (9) of the year 2020 have been divided depending on women quota, to be (83) electoral constituencies".
He added: "let's take the constituency No (11) as a sample for other constituencies. This constituency is located between Al-Shula and AL-Kadhemiyah municipalities. As you can see on the map, Al-Shu'la municipality has areas colored red, indicating that it has high population density, while the white areas indicate a less population density. For example, in Al-Kadhemiyah municipality, District No (421) has high population density, while District No (417) has a less population density".
He pointed out that: "this is a general idea on the electoral geography, as we need from all the political entities and candidates to think about this mechanism, since the elections will be held under new elections law. Thus, we need a detailed study for each area on its electoral outcomes, and at the same time, its population geography and the geographic terrain".
Completing his speech on this constituency, Mr. Tawfeeq said: " the results of the parliamentary elections in 2018 of this constituency were as the following: Saeroon ranked the first, Al-fatah ranked the second, State of Law Coalition ranked the third, then Victory Alliance, National Wisdom Movement and finally, Al-Tahaluf Al-Watani. This constituency included (17) registration centers and (1024) divided on (159) voting stations. The total number of voters of this constituency in the previous elections reached (173745) people, out of (480690) people who were eligible to vote. The rates that were obtained by each political entity did not exceed (8%) and (6%) of the number of voters. While the boycott rate reached (65%) of the number of voters. Thus, we deduce that the increase of participation rates in the elections will change the political map, while the reluctance to participation and boycott of elections will keep the political seen on its current situation".
He moved to talk about another constituency: "for example, thee constituency No (12) involves (20) registration centers and (1081) voting stations distributed on (165) voting centers. In 2018 elections, the number of voters reached (103109) voters. The rate of the boycotters reached (67%) of the voters who were eligible to vote. While the ranks of the political entities were: Al-Wataniyah first, then Saeroon, Al-Nasr, Daulat Al-Qanoon, Al-Fateh and finally Al-Qarar. The rate of the votes of this constituency was (30%) of the number of voters".
He added that: "constituency No (13) include Al-Ghazaliyah, Hay Al-Adl and Abu-Graib regions. We, as a center, have a note on the division of this constituency. There is a problem represented by linking the countryside to the city, as Abu-Graib region is considered a countryside agricultural region that is different in its needs from the needs of the city. We notice that the reluctance rate in it reached (44%)".
Then, he talked about other constituencies: "constituency No (5) is constituted of three municipalities, a part of Al-Rusafa municipality- a part of Baghdad Al-Jadeedah and the biggest part of Al-Ghadeer municipality. The reluctance rate in it reached (70%), while constituency No (6) represented by Al-Adhamiyah region has been added to it three non-contiguous registration centers, one from Al-Sha'b and two from Al-Rusafa. The rate of boycott in it reached (69%), while the rate of boycott in constituency No (7) reached (70%) of the number of voters".
He concluded his speech: "I would like to answer the question that is asked constantly, should we participate in the next elections? Simply, non-participation means keeping these rates as they are, thus no change in the political seen will happen, as there is no way to change only by increasing the rates of participation".